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MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE CO (TAP)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 was defined by a large non-cash impairment but underlying operations tracked expectations: Net sales fell 2.3% to $2.97B; underlying EPS was $1.67 (-7.2% YoY). GAAP EPS was a loss of $14.79 due to a $3.65B partial goodwill impairment and $273.9M intangible impairments .
  • Against S&P Global consensus, TAP slightly missed revenue ($2.97B vs $3.01B*) and EPS ($1.67 vs $1.70*) but beat EBITDA ($670M vs $653M*). Management reaffirmed full-year guidance but now expects results at the low end of ranges* .
  • Americas volumes fell 6.5% as contract brewing headwinds and U.S. category softness weighed; EMEA&APAC net sales rose 2.4% on FX and premiumization despite lower volumes .
  • CEO outlined a faster, leaner execution model, including an Americas restructuring (~400 salaried roles; $35–$50M charges) and renewed focus on core, economy, above-premium (Peroni), and Beyond Beer (Fever-Tree) as catalysts for mix-led growth .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Price/mix and premiumization supported net sales per hectoliter (+4.0% reported; +2.9% cc) as TAP leaned into favorable brand and geography mix .
  • EMEA&APAC delivered reported net sales growth (+2.4%) on FX and premiumization despite volume declines; net sales/hl +7.6% reported .
  • Management reaffirmed full-year guidance (net sales -3% to -4% cc; underlying pretax -12% to -15% cc; underlying EPS -7% to -10%) and emphasized balance sheet flexibility and shareholder returns .
  • “We believe the incremental softness in the industry this year is cyclical… we are well positioned with a healthy balance sheet, strong free cash flow, and great brands” — CEO Rahul Goyal .

What Went Wrong

  • U.S. industry weakness and competition pressured volumes: Financial volume -6.0%, Americas brand volume -4.4% (U.S. -4.9%) .
  • Non-cash impairments created a GAAP loss: $3.65B partial goodwill (Americas) and $273.9M intangible (Staropramen; Blue Run Spirits) drove GAAP loss before tax of $3.50B .
  • Midwest premium aluminum costs trended at the high end of expectations, with October above the range, pressuring COGS despite hedging programs .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue (Net Sales, $USD Billions)$3.043 $3.201 $2.974
Underlying Diluted EPS ($)$1.80 $2.05 $1.67
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.96 $2.13 ($14.79)
Underlying EBITDA ($USD Millions)$692.3 $763.9 $665.4
Financial Volume (m hl)20.629 20.870 19.385
Brand Volume (m hl)21.332 20.612 20.366

Actual vs S&P Global Wall Street Consensus – Q3 2025

MetricActualConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.974 $3.008*Miss (~$0.035B, ~1.1%)*
Primary EPS (Underlying) ($)$1.67 $1.70*Miss (~$0.03)*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$670.1 $653.2*Beat (~$17M, ~2.6%)*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown – Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024

SegmentNet Sales ($USD Millions)Underlying PBT ($USD Millions)Financial Volume (m hl)
Americas (Q3 2024 → Q3 2025)$2,345 → $2,260 $419.8 → $387.8 14.695 → 13.738
EMEA&APAC (Q3 2024 → Q3 2025)$704.4 → $721.0 $98.0 → $89.2 5.938 → 5.649

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q3 2025
Net Sales per hl (reported YoY change)+5.8% (company-wide, Q2 ref) +4.0% (company-wide)
COGS per hl (reported YoY change)+7.3% (Q2 ref) +4.1%
Net Debt / Underlying EBITDA (TTM)2.10x (Sep 30, 2024) 2.28x (Sep 30, 2025)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q2 2025)Current Guidance (Q3 2025)Change
Net Sales (cc)FY 2025Decline 3%–4% Decline 3%–4% (low end) Maintained; now low end
Underlying Pretax Income (cc)FY 2025Decline 12%–15% Decline 12%–15% (low end) Maintained; now low end
Underlying Diluted EPSFY 2025Decline 7%–10% Decline 7%–10% (low end) Maintained; now low end
Underlying Net Interest ExpenseFY 2025~$225M ±5% ~$225M ±5% Maintained
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025$650M ±5% $650M ±5% Maintained
Underlying Free Cash FlowFY 2025~$1.3B ±10% ~$1.3B ±10% (low end) Maintained; now low end
Underlying D&AFY 2025$675M ±5% $675M ±5% Maintained
Underlying Effective Tax RateFY 202522%–24% 22%–24% Maintained
Americas Restructuring ChargesFY 2025N/A$35–$50M (mostly cash; Q4) New subsequent event

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Supply chain & inventoryQ1: cycling prior-year U.S. inventory build due to Fort Worth strike; working capital impacted . Q2: STWs catching up; contract brewing exits pressuring volumes .Expect lower year-end U.S. distributor inventories; Q4 STWs to trail STRs; volume deleverage impact on COGS .Inventory normalization; COGS headwinds persist.
Tariffs/Midwest premiumQ2 guidance incorporated higher-than-expected Midwest premium .Midwest premium at high end in Q3 and above in October; hedging limited by market structure .Cost pressure rising late-year.
Product performanceQ1: core power brands healthy; above-premium focus incl. Fever-Tree . Q2: price/mix favorable; premiumization in EMEA&APAC .Peroni +25% volume (U.S.); Blue Moon stabilization efforts; economy focus (High Life, Keystone) .Mix shift toward above premium; economy brands refocus.
Regional trendsQ1/Q2: EMEA&APAC soft demand; competitive landscape; FX aided net sales .Americas volumes down; EMEA&APAC net sales up on FX/premiumization despite volume declines .Americas weakness; EMEA&APAC mixed.
Organizational restructuringN/A in Q1; adjusted guidance; balance sheet strong . Q2: continued Acceleration Plan; shareholder returns .CEO’s leaner Americas model; ~400 roles eliminated; redeploy savings into brands, supply chain, technology .Faster, local execution; near-term restructuring costs.
Beyond Beer & partnershipsQ1: exclusive U.S. Fever-Tree; non-alc scale-up . Q2: Fever-Tree fair value gain; integration fees to be recovered .Non-alk scaling; RTD gaps to fill; Fever-Tree distributor acceptance strong .Expansion accelerates; capital deployment targeted.
Capital allocationQ2: ~$500M returned 1H; dividend and buybacks .Share repurchases paused due to CEO search blackout; window re-opening; maintain buyback commitment .Continued returns; tactical timing impacted by blackout.

Management Commentary

  • CEO Rahul Goyal: “We recognize the challenges and opportunities ahead… designed to create a leaner, more agile organization… advancing our ability to reinvest in the business and return cash to shareholders” .
  • CFO Tracey Joubert: “Underlying results were largely as expected… challenging industry and increased competition… reaffirming full year guidance, but now expect the low end of ranges” .
  • On portfolio priorities: “Strengthening core and economy… significant runway in above premium (Peroni)… step up focus on Beyond Beer… partnerships like Fever-Tree” .
  • On cost headwinds: “Midwest premium costs will exceed prior year by $40–$55M with most increases in 2H; prices at the high end in Q3 and slightly above in October” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Inventory posture: Entering 2026 with healthy days of inventory; Q4 U.S. STW expected to trail STR; aim to pivot supply early next year .
  • Cyclical vs structural debate: Management sees 2025 category softness as cyclical; expects return to pre-2025 declines (~-3% range) as macro issues abate .
  • Capital deployment: Preference for accretive, scalable deals; Beyond Beer likely focus; maintain dividend and repurchases within ~2.5x leverage target .
  • Economy brands strategy: Emphasis on regional execution, pricing architecture, disciplined marketing; stabilize High Life/Keystone .
  • Restructuring savings: Charges $35–$50M in Q4; many reductions relate to open positions; redeploy savings to brands and capabilities; specific savings cadence not yet disclosed .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q3 2025: Revenue $3.008B*, Primary EPS $1.70*, EBITDA $653M*; TAP delivered $2.974B revenue , $1.67 underlying EPS , and $670M underlying EBITDA . Slight revenue and EPS misses were offset by an EBITDA beat*.
  • Target Price Consensus Mean: ~$50.90*; Consensus Recommendation was not available in the data set*.
  • Implications: Street likely lowers revenue/EPS near term to reflect category softness and high Midwest premium, but EBITDA resilience and mix improvement could temper estimate cuts*.
    Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Underlying operations tracking to low end of guidance amid category softness; expect near-term estimate moderation centered on revenue and EPS while EBITDA holds up on mix and cost savings .
  • Narrative pivot under new CEO: leaner Americas org, faster local execution, redeployment of savings to core, economy, above premium, and Beyond Beer—catalysts for mix-led margin defense .
  • Watch cost inflation: Midwest premium remains elevated; hedging limited—monitor aluminum premium trajectory and pass-through dynamics into FY26 plans .
  • Segment divergence: Americas volumes pressured by contract brewing exits and U.S. category weakness; EMEA&APAC supported by premiumization and FX—track Peroni, Madrí, and Blue Moon actions .
  • Balance sheet capacity intact: Net debt/EBITDA at 2.28x; management remains committed to dividend and buybacks; opportunistic M&A in Beyond Beer could add scalable growth .
  • Trading setup: Near-term overhang from impairments and cost headwinds; catalysts include restructuring details, holiday execution, Peroni/Blue Moon momentum, and visibility on Midwest premium moderation .
  • Medium-term thesis: Mix upgrade, premium brand investments, and Beyond Beer expansion alongside efficiency gains can rebase margins and restore low single-digit organic growth once macro normalizes .

Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q3 context)

  • Americas restructuring announced Oct 20, 2025 (~400 salaried roles; $35–$50M charges), aligning with Q3 “subsequent event” disclosure .
  • Q3 webcast notice (Oct 1) available; operational slides provide context for Midwest premium and segment drivers .